Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25+ bps by September 30, 2026?

⚡ Markets pricing ~2 cuts by year-end1 vote

Yes

100%

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Yes0%

No100%

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✨ AI says 72% Yes

Labor data and inflation trajectory in August–September typically drive FOMC decisions; market expectations have shifted toward rate relief amid economic softening signals.

Rules

Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate (published at federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy) is at least 0.25% lower than the current rate as of September 1, 2026. A single 25 bps cut or cumulative cuts totaling 25+ bps both resolve YES.

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