Will the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 50+ basis points by December 31, 2026?

⚡ Current rate: 5.25–5.50%; inflation cooling trend10 votes

Yes

30%

70%

Voting closed

Yes30%

No70%

Voting is closed.

Votes only — no stakes, just conviction.

✨ AI says 58% Yes

Persistent inflation concerns may limit cuts, but recession risks and cooling labor markets could push the Fed toward a 50 bps reduction by year-end.

Rules

Resolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate falls by at least 0.50 percentage points from its level on 2026-08-28 (currently 5.25–5.50%), as confirmed by the Federal Reserve's official press release and FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov.

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