Will the US unemployment rate fall below 3.8% by December 31, 2026?

⚡ Currently ~4.2%; last below 3.8% in July 20220 votes

Yes

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✨ AI says 35% Yes

Fed rate cuts may support labor demand, but structural tightness has eased; reaching pre-pandemic lows in 2.5 months faces headwinds from gradual normalization.

Rules

Resolves YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) falls below 3.8% in any month reported by year-end 2026. Source: bls.gov.

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